Updated 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast maintains above-average predictions fueled by warm ocean temps
FORT COLLINS, Colo. – Leading hurricane researchers are maintaining their forecast for an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Colorado State University (CSU) said Wednesday that above-average sea-surface temperatures in the subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea were a primary factor in their prediction of nine total hurricanes this year.
According to researchers, when the waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are warmer than average in the late spring, they tend to force a weaker subtropical high-pressure system and weaker associated winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic.
“These conditions are anticipated to lead to a continuation of above-average water temperatures across most of the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season,” CSU noted in its latest hurricane season outlook.
A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation.
Forecasters noted that current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in the next couple of months. However, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what phase of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) will dominate this summer and fall.
While the odds of El Niño this hurricane season are low, they are still considerably higher than they were for last year’s hurricane season.
The CSU team is predicting 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
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