Hurricanes need warm ocean water to form, and water temperatures in a key section of the Atlantic are really starting to warm up.
“One of the biggest changes I’ve observed in recent weeks is a considerable warming of the so-called Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic above its seasonal averages,” WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry said in late July on a Substack post.
That’s a big change from earlier this season.
“To open the hurricane season in June, waters across this bellwether part of the Atlantic where most of our strongest hurricanes get their start were running average to even below average,” he said.
The Main Development Region (MDR), located between the Caribbean and Africa, is a region in the Atlantic where many tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) form. This area is key because it’s where many tropical waves, which can develop into hurricanes, originally form.
The warm water in that key region is just one of the reasons hurricane forecasters are warning that hurricane season could soon heat up.
Warm water everywhere
It’s not only the Main Development Region that’s warm: Water across the Gulf of America (formerly known as Gulf of Mexico) and the Caribbean Sea area also above average, scientists said. In fact, closer to home, persistent high pressure has led to some notable warming of the shelf waters around Florida, as well as the nearby southwest Atlantic, Andy Hazelton, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami, pointed out on X on August 1. This included a 90-degree reading at a buoy near Virginia Key, Florida, near Miami.
“Water temperatures are pretty much warm enough everywhere in the tropical Atlantic to support hurricane formation,” Colorado State Univerisity meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY July 31. “The general consensus is that a temperature of 26.5°C (79 degrees F) is required to get a hurricane to form,” he said.
University of Miami tropical researcher Brian McNoldy confirmed this, telling USA TODAY in an email August 1 that “looking at sea surface temperature, it’s above the commonly-used 26°C isotherm everywhere of interest, so that ingredient is in place from Africa to the Caribbean to the Gulf.”
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