The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a significantly above-average level of activity. The forecast announced during NOAA’s press conference on May 22, outlines a 60% likelihood of heightened hurricane activity. As many as 10 hurricanes could form this season, with up to 5 becoming major hurricanes—a projection rooted in warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures and unusually weak wind shear.
Why This Season Could Be Unusually Active
The current forecast anticipates 13 to 19 named tropical storms, of which 6 to 10 could escalate into hurricanes. Historically, a typical season includes 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The potential for stronger and more frequent storms this year is linked primarily to elevated Atlantic sea surface temperatures—a known catalyst for tropical storm formation—and reduced vertical wind shear, which allows storms to grow in vertical structure and intensity.
Tropical storms are classified based on wind speed. Once a system’s sustained winds reach 39 mph (63 km/h), it becomes a named tropical storm. Hurricanes begin at 74 mph (119 km/h), and any system exceeding 111 mph (179 km/h) is considered a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher).
Peak hurricane activity typically occurs in September, when oceanic and atmospheric conditions align most favorably. Outside of the June-to-November window, cooler ocean temperatures and increased wind shear tend to inhibit storm development.
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