HOMEGROWN MISCHIEF? Something I’m keeping one eye on this week

@scotpilie_wx HOMEGROWN MISCHIEF? Something I’m keeping one eye on this week🌀⛈️👀 The National Hurricane Center has increased odds of development to 30% over the next 5-7 days as the disturbance slides along the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday-Saturday(7/16-7/19.) Regardless of whether #Dexter attempts to form this week, a surge of rich tropical moisture likely to enhace rain chances & elevate the flash flood risk along the Northern Gulf Coast. Remember, you don’t need a named storm to cause flooding impacts. Key factors: 1. How much can this system organize today before crossing Florida into the northern Gulf. If the tropical low is more intact, that could increase the odds of bonafide named storm formation. Most likely a weak, sloppy depression or tropical storm, if formation occurs at all. (ICON model, lone global model showing stronger solutions. This model performed well at times last year.) 2. How much time over water/real estate before coming inland along the northern Gulf Coast. More time over water = larger window to attempt named storm formation. 3. Heavy rain will be main threat, regardless of whether Dexter forms. This deep surge of tropical moisture looks to enhance rainfall chances across the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida mid-late week. This extra tropical moisture may fuel an increased flash flood risk, especially if slow moving into Louisiana. Stay tuned. #Dexter #TropicalStorm #TropicalStormDexter #Weather #HurricaneSeason #Hurricane ♬ original sound – Scot Pilié